My Unconventional Final Four Predictions

With Saturday's semifinal games approaching, all four teams seem capable of capturing the title. All of the Final Four teams have knocked off a No. 1 seed to get to New Orleans, except for Kentucky, the remaining No. 1 in the bunch.

Louisville plays a smothering defense and has allowed 57.5 points per game in the tournament. Their offense is not exactly high-powered, but it's well-balanced, with six players averaging over 9 points per game. The Cardinals usually make up for their streaky shooting with good rebounding. When they play the Wildcats this weekend, there is an extra incentive to winning - beating their in-state rival...and it goes deeper than that: Louisville head coach Rick Pitino doesn't like Kentucky head coach John Calipari. Especially after Calipari stole recruit Marquis Teague away from Louisville, and after he called Kentucky "the only real program in the state."

Although it's going to take more than bad blood to beat Kentucky. The Wildcats have been on a roll in the tournament, winning all four games by 12 points or more, and averaging 88 points per contest (10 more points than their season average). Kentucky is loaded with freshman talent, the best one being Anthony Davis, who averages over 14 points, 10 rebounds, and 4 blocks per game. He is one of three freshman Wildcats heading to the NBA next year (projected), and two upperclassmen, Doron Lamb and Darius Miller, will also be joining them. So it's now or never for this group.

The Ohio State Buckeyes are little more experienced. They start four sophomores and a senior. One of them, forward Jared Sullinger, was considered a one-and-doner, but he decided to return for a second year, and it's the biggest reason the Buckeyes are back in the Final Four. Sullinger is part of a three-headed scoring attack, along with forward Deshaun Thomas and guard William Buford - all of them average over 14 ppg, and all of them are capable of hitting three-pointers. In addition, the Buckeyes only allow 60 points per game on defense.

Finally, let's discuss the team that always seems to destroy my bracket. I took the Kansas Jayhawks as my champion the last two years (along with President Obama), and both years, they couldn't even make the Final Four (losing to Northern Iowa in the second round in 2010 and to VCU in the Elite Eight in 2011). Understandably, I had lost all faith in the Jayhawks, and now they are two wins away from the title. Like the remaining teams in the tournament, Kansas is defense-oriented (something to take into account next March). The team allows the third-lowest FG percentage in the nation - opponents only shoot 38% against them. The Jayhawks' only major flaw appears to be three point shooting - 23.4%! Yikes.

So which team will reign supreme and manage to pull off two wins this weekend? After looking at the statistical strengths and weaknesses, I don't think any of the numbers really matter. In the last seven years, I've only guessed one champion correctly. I would have been better off making my bracket picks after consulting a six year-old, or if I was a six year-old myself. And that convinced me I need to simplify my thinking about predictions.

For instance...how often does the Final Four Champion sport the color blue on their uniforms? In the last 27 years (since the field expanded to 64 or more teams), the champion has worn blue 20 times (including powder blue). Seventy-four percent of the time - that's a pretty good indicator of success.

Second, what kind of team mascots do well in the NCAA tournament? Of the last 27 winners, over half (14) have been animals (Gators, Huskies, etc.), six have been people (Spartans, Rebels, Hoosiers, etc.), six have been mythical figures (Blue Devils, Jayhawks, etc.), and one has been a color (Orange). In 2012, animal teams are 36-35 (felines are 11-7), people names are 14-21, mythical figures are 5-4, and colors are 3-2 in the tournament...and, by the way, nature mascots (Buckeyes and Cyclones) are 5-1.

Third, how often is the Final Four Champion from a Confederate or Union state? Since 1985, 17 out of the 27 champions have come from Union States (with Duke, UNC, Florida, and Arkansas grabbing the rest of them for the Confederate states). In the tournament this year, teams from Union states are 32-24, while Confederate state teams are 17-20.

Using these new criteria (colors, Civil War loyalties, and mascots), I believe I can accurately predict the outcome of this week's games. Since all of the teams are from Union states, I can eliminate that factor. Okay, let's get down to guestimatin'.

Louisville vs. Kentucky

Color: Wildcat Blue beats Cardinal Red

Mascot: Both are animals, but felines have been particularly successful this March, so Wildcats get the nod

Winner: Kentucky

Ohio State vs. Kansas

Color: Jayhawk Blue beats Buckeye Red

Mascot: A team with a nature mascot has only won a title once since 1939 (Ohio State in 1960), so edge goes to Kansas (mythical figures have won 25% of the time since 1988)

Winner: Kansas

Kentucky vs. Kansas
Color: Push - both teams sport blue
Mascot: Since the field increased to 64, animals have been more successful than mythical figures, which favors the Wildcats

Winner: Kentucky

And there you have it. If I would have used this kind of logic when I filled out my brackets, I would be on top of the leaderboard, instead of Charles (now I've really jinxed him).

Note: I borrowed some of the 2012 research on states and mascots from Shane Ryan at grantland.com.

By Your Powers Combined!

Time to tell you about the final eight heroes in your bracket:

Bruce Treut
Name: Aquaman
Highest Finish: 14th (2011)
2012 Champion Pick: Michigan St.
Special power: The King of Atlantis can breathe underwater and can communicate directly with any sea life, and order them to fight evil. The only crustacean that ignores his commands is the stubborn Alaskan King Crab (because he is a competing monarch in the ocean kingdom).

Bill Butler
Name: Nightcrawler
Highest Finish: 2nd (2004)
2012 Champion Pick: Kentucky
Special power: This blue-skinned member of the X-Men can teleport quickly (faster than Star Trek standards) - up to 3 miles away from his starting position! Can you imagine how helpful this is in the middle of the night when you really have to use the bathroom?

Brock
Name: Paul Bunyan
Highest Finish: 1st (2005)
2012 Champion Pick: Kentucky
Special power: The giant lumberjack, usually accompanied by Babe the Blue Ox, is responsible for many of the geographic features of the United States. He created the Grand Canyon by dragging his axe behind him, and the 10,000 lakes in Minnesota were footprints left by Paul and Babe during a great blizzard. Sadly, he is also guilty of clear-cutting and irresponsible logging practices.

Greg
Name: Zaphod Beeblebrox
Highest Finish: Rookie
2012 Champion Pick: Kentucky
Special power: In case you didn’t know, Zaphod is president of the galactic government (from “Hitchiker’s Guide to the Galaxy”. He has two heads, three arms, and lives the life of a self-centered rock star, gallivanting around the universe as he pleases. He’s not too concerned about the Vogon destroying Earth to build a intergalactic highway. Should he be?

Colin
Name: Die Fledermaus
Highest Finish: Rookie
2012 Champion Pick: North Carolina
Special power: Like the character he is spoofing, Batman, he has no real superpowers; just a costume with oversized ears, a realistic bat nose, and a boatload of gadgets. Featured in the cartoon “The Tick,” Die Fledermaus usually sat around in diners and tried to pick up women, instead of fighting bad guys.

Brett
Name: Hellboy: Box Full of Evil
Highest Finish: Rookie
2012 Champion Pick: Florida St.
Special power: During World War 2, Hellboy was summoned as an infant from Hell to Earth by the Nazis. Luckily, the United States won the war and trained Hellboy to become a federal agent (investigating paranormal activities). This red-skinned demon possesses superhuman strength and endurance. He has cloven hooves and an oversized hand made of stone - called the Right Hand of Doom - that is perfect for pummeling his enemies.

Tim Dardis
Name: Tim Dardis
Highest Finish: Rookie
2012 Champion Pick: Kentucky
Special power: Tim Dardis is a genius when it comes to pull tabs. I once saw him win three dollars.

Me
Name: Captain Planet
Highest Finish: 1st (2002, 2004)
2012 Champion Pick: North Carolina
Special power: CP can control the elements of wind, earth, fire, water and heart. Heart, by the way, is the power of imparting care and sympathy into the minds of people. Sounds like propoganda to me.

Gods and Monsters

Continuing with my introduction of March Madness participants in 2012...I guess you could call them my friends, but for three weeks out of the year, they are my mortal enemies:

Charles
Name: Shear Madness & Udder Chaos
Highest Finish: 4th (2011)
2012 Champion Pick: Kentucky
Special power: Points for creativity! No, I will not award you points in the pool, but bravo for coming up with a sheep and cow crimefighter duo, who fight villains like Masta Don and Panda Monium. I just wish there were more puns at Charles’ disposal.

Brian
Name: Topo the Octopus
Highest Finish: 2nd (2005)
2012 Champion Pick: Ohio St.
Special power: Topo is a cephalopod with unusually high intelligence, so naturally he is good pals with Aquaman. Green Arrow taught him archery and he can play several musical instruments at once...are these skills applicable underwater?

Bill Bowman
Name: Bacchus - God of Intoxication
Highest Finish: 1st (2008)
2012 Champion Pick: Kentucky
Special power: As the consummate (double entendre) partier and the creator of wine, Bacchus often found himself in the company of pretty raucous revelers, including nymphs and satyrs. A satyr, by the way, is a pipe player that roams the woods and mountains, and it’s part human and part goat. But don’t ever confuse a satyr for a faun or a centaur. That will land you in deep trouble.

Sue Bowman
Name: Underdog
Highest Finish: 1st (2009)
2012 Champion Pick:
Special power: This dog in a cape should mostly be applauded for teaching kids to rhyme. A few examples are: (1) “There’s no need to fear! Underdog is here!” (2) “I am a hero who never fails, I can’t be bothered with such details,” and (3) “When Polly’s in trouble, I am not slow, it’s hip, hip, hip, and away I go!”

Kim
Name: Archangel Michael
Highest Finish: 1st (2010)
2012 Champion Pick: Michigan St.
Special power: Like all archangels, Michael delivers messages from God to people and vice versa. And I understand that he defeated Satan in heaven, which is a big deal. However, the Archangel Gabriel had 140 pairs of wings, so he probably could fly faster. Just sayin’.

Robert
Name: Epimetheus
Highest Finish: 4th (2008)
2012 Champion Pick: Michigan St.
Special power: Eppy, as I like to call him, was Prometheus’ foolish brother. While Prometheus was busy creating a man out of clay, Eppy was handing out qualities to animals and creatures in a lackadaisical fashion, like strength, speed, and flight. “Here you go, ostrich! Here’s a long neck and some wings that are useless for flying!” In the course of his random gift-giving, he forgot to save any special traits for humans.

Michael Busick
Name: Black Lightning
Highest Finish: 7th (2006, 2009)
2012 Champion Pick: North Carolina
Special power: Once a member of the Justice League and parodied in a Saturday Night Live skit by the comedian Sinbad, Black Lightning can generate bursts of lightning (also called electricity). He was one of the first African-American superheroes, and was considerably more talented than Blackwing, Black Spider, Black Racer, Black Eagle or Black Panther.

Tom
Name: The Invisible Man
Highest Finish: 3rd (2008)
2012 Champion Pick: Michigan St.
Special power: Speaking of African Americans, The Invisible Man was a novel written in 1952 by Ralph Ellison, about a nameless black man living in small town in the South, and later in Harlem, who struggles to define his place in society. But maybe Tom was thinking about H.G. Wells’ novel of the same name (published in 1897), where a scientist turns himself invisible, and is unable to reverse the effects, with murderous consequences. I have read neither classic novel, and I feel ashamed. But, like the main characters, I can’t seem to escape my tragic fate.

Part 3 of superhero introductions will follow shortly. I didn’t forget about you, Aquaman!

We Can Be Heroes Just For One Day

Starting with the 2011 Player’s Club Invitational Defending Champion, here’s a rundown of the pool competition. The first round of introductions covers the Commish’s immediate and extended family. Look for Part 2 later this weekend...

Tina (sister-in-law)

Name: Professor X
Highest Finish: 1st (2011)
2012 Champion Pick: Kentucky
Special power: He can read people's minds and project thoughts into them, of anyone within range of 250 miles. Xavier can also suppress memories or cause amnesia in others, which sort of defeats the purpose of aging.

Rick (brother)
Name: HANCOCK
Highest Finish: 7th (2003, 2010)
2012 Champion Pick: Florida St.
Special power: I remember watching this movie with Spanish subtitles and no sound in Costa Rica. I should try watching it again. As an underachieving superhero with a bad attitude and a taste for liquor, his special power is destroying public property.

Jamie Difranco (nephew)
Name: The Human Torch
Highest Finish: My records appear to be incomplete in this regard. Sorry. Let's just say 15th...
2012 Champion Pick: Duke
Special power: Goes without saying, but this member of the Fantastic Four can cover his body in fire for up to 17 hours, soar through the air at supersonic speeds, and shoot flames at his enemies. Always wondered what would happen if him and Iceman fought - don't worry, it has been debated at length on comic chat forums.

Mom/Nancy
Name: Helen Parr aka Elastigirl
Highest Finish: 4th (2009)
2012 Champion Pick: Kentucky
Special power: This homemaker/superhero (above) can stretch parts of her body up to 100 feet. She is married to Mr. Incredible and is the very definition of a supermom. Still, my mom's better. Obviously. Have you ever tried her carrot cake?

Aunt Pat
Name: Nike
Highest Finish: 6th (2010)
2012 Champion Pick: Kentucky
Special power: Superior flying and running skills (swoosh). Sometimes depicted driving the chariot of Zeus, Nike is the Greek goddess of victory. Best known for her headless statue in the Louvre in Paris (Winged Victory of Samothrace).

Dad/Jim
Name: Jimmy Neutron
Highest Finish: 2nd (2003, 2008)
2012 Champion Pick: Kansas
Special power: Possesses an IQ of 210 - ten more points than actually possible - so it's fair to say he's the smartest kid in the world. But would someone with this much brainpower really pick Kansas?

Sharon/Stepmom
Name: Dagda (Da Good One)
Highest Finish: Rookie
2012 Champion Pick: Kentucky
Special power: Unparalleled in power in the Celtic world - Dagda has a magic club that can kill nine men with one blow, a magical harp that puts the seasons in order, and a cauldron that supplies unlimited food. Throws some killer parties, too...because he rules over life and death.

Luke (stepbrother)
Name: Silver Surfer
Highest Finish: Rookie
2012 Champion Pick: Syracuse
Special power: He absorbs the universe's cosmic energy, which makes him strong and almost indestructible. On his board, the Silver Surfer is capable of flying through hyperspace at remarkable speeds. In the late 70s, he joined a prog-rock band with Hulk and Namor the Submariner called The Titans Three.

Peter (stepcousin)
Name: Peter Parker
Highest Finish: 1st (2006, 2007)
2012 Champion Pick: Syracuse
Special power: Thanks to a radioactive spider, Peter is especially agile and can cling to walls, ceilings and buildings. After all these years, he's still trying to get his doctorate in biochemistry and his patent request for a web-shooting device keeps getting turned down.

Uncle Bill
Name: William the Conqueror
Highest Finish: 2nd (2007)
2012 Champion Pick: Kentucky
Special power: As far as I know, William was a real person, and the first Norman King of England. In the tradition of Coneheads, upon invading the British Isles, he proclaimed, "We come from France!"

Paula (cousin)
Name: Freyja
Highest Finish: 3rd (2007)
2012 Champion Pick: Syracuse
Special power: Wikipedia, the primary guide for all Norse and Germanic mythology, states that Freyja "rides on a chariot driven by two cats." Let's just stop right there. So she's one of those crazy people who puts a leash on her cat and tries to walk it down the street? That's just stupid. You can't train a cat.

Alison Heiser (cousin)
Name: Athena Goddess of Wisdom
Highest Finish: 2nd (2010)
2012 Champion Pick: Michigan St.
Special power: Athena, one of the three Virgin Goddesses of Olympus, gave the olive tree to Greece, providing people with shade, oil, and olives. And so they named the city of Athens after her. She was also a cunning war strategist and the patron saint of weaving, for those people who didn't like olives.

Michael Heiser (son of Athena)
Name: Robin
Highest Finish: 3rd (2010)
2012 Champion Pick: Michigan St.
Special power: The Boy Wonder had the privilege of learning from the best crime fighter of all time, the Dark Knight. Acrobatic, elusive and highly intelligent, he went on to become the superhero Nightwing. Then Batman adopted a series of other apprentices named Robin. The worst one, by far, was Chris O'Donnell.

And I saved the best family member for last...

Missy

Name: Demeter

Highest Finish: 15th (2011)

2012 Champion: Michigan St.

Special power: This Greek Goddess taught people how to grow and prepare grain, and maintains the land's fertility. But I still sort of blame her for winter. Four months out of the year, she gets all depressed about her daughter Persephone (because she has to live in Hades), and won't let us humans harvest crops. Pretty melodramatic, if you ask me.

There is No "I" in Team...

...unless you're talking about the "SuperFriends," Hanna-Barbera's cartoon based on the Justice League of America. The JLA was a team of DC Comics characters that bonded together every time an ubervillain threatened to blow up the world or enslave the human population. In the cartoon, the superheroes gathered at their headquarters in Metropolis, the Hall of Justice, and then used their combined wits and powers to bring down mad scientists and aliens.

Batman, Robin, Superman, Wonder Woman, and Aquaman were the starting five on the Superfriends. (Bear with me...I'm working on a basketball metaphor here.)

Later, Green Lantern, The Flash, Hawkman, and Hawkgirl joined the team and made significant contributions off the bench. The most puzzling addition, created just for the television series, was Apache Chief. He was a Native American who could grow to unlimited size upon uttering a few words from his native language. It was a well-meaning attempt to include a superhero of color (because it was the 1970s), but ultimately, Apache Chief was a walking stereotype. He was simultaneously joined by other semi-racist role players, Black Vulcan, El Dorado and Samurai.

Got a little off topic there, but my point is: Everyone knew their role on the SuperFriends, and they were able to work together to achieve good results. Superman was unquestionably the star of the team, like a humble Kobe Bryant (oxymoron), given his remarkable talent. Batman was the point guard, skirting around defenders in his Batmobile and creating plays with his unlimited arsenal of gadgets. Wonder Woman, a warrior princess of the Amazons, naturally played the post position. She used her elbows and indestructible bracelets to her advantage, and seemingly grabbed rebounds out of nowhere, due to her invisible airplane. Aquaman was the small forward with questionable range, because he couldn't leave the ocean for too long. Robin was the tiny guard who could pretty much only hit free throws, yet he was dependable and didn't turn over the ball too much. A pretty good lineup, right?

Except the SuperFriends knew, that in order to reach the next level, they couldn't always play with three guards, and they needed depth. They needed some more muscle down low (Green Lantern, Hawkman) and a lightning-quick point guard (The Flash) to confuse opponents. And it doesn't hurt to recruit a Hispanic player, El Dorado, to bring in more fans and sell more tickets.

Okay, I've exhausted this metaphor.

In conclusion, the Kentucky Wildcats are exceptionally talented, but do they have enough depth to make it to the championship game? Or does it not matter that only six or seven players take the court for Coach Calipari each game? Sure, Superman and his friends can play 35+ minutes each night. Can Anthony Davis, Doron Lamb, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Marquis Teague carry the team on their shoulders for six straight games?

A Geographic Look at March Madness

Quick! Answer this question!

Where is St. Bonaventure located?

How about Iona?

Both of these Catholic schools are in the great state of New York. The St. Bonaventure Bonnies (real creative nickname) reside in the western part of the state, in the Allegheny River Valley, whereas the Iona Gaels are located in New Rochelle, closer to NYC. In total, four universities in New York state received invites to the 2012 NCAA men's basketball tournament. The other two are Syracuse and LIU-Brooklyn.

This year, the state that received the most bids was North Carolina. Five invites were sent to UNC, Duke, Davidson, UNC-Asheville, and NC State. How is this relevant?

Last year, the state of Virginia got five teams in, and two of those teams went to the Sweet Sixteen (Richmond and VCU), and one of them made it to the Final Four.

On the other hand, Pennsylvania had five bids, and the state only notched two wins (Temple, Pittsburgh). So maybe there is no significance to this...although three of the 2011 Final Four teams came from states receiving three bids or more (Virginia, Indiana, and Kentucky). Then I looked back at the four Final Fours before that (2007-2010), and I found no correlation between number of state bids and Final Four appearances.

So that was a giant waste of time, and it was not useful in predicting the teams that will end up in New Orleans.

But just for the fun of it, here are the other states that got three or more college invites (besides North Carolina and New York):

California (4) - San Diego St., St. Mary's, Long Beach St., California

Kentucky (4) - Louisville, Kentucky, Murray St., Western Kentucky

Ohio (4) - Cincinnati, Ohio St., Xavier, Ohio

Virginia (3) - VCU, Virginia, Norfolk St.

Indiana (3) - Notre Dame, Indiana, Purdue

Tennessee (3) - Vanderbilt, Memphis, Belmont

Michigan (3) - Detroit, Michigan, Michigan St.

Florida (3) - Florida St., Florida, Southern Florida

Kansas (3) - Kansas, Kansas St., Wichita St.

Of note: Oregon and Illinois laid big fat goose eggs, and my home state of Washington only got one bid - Gonzaga.

Go Aztecs! I place my rooting interests solely on you!

Hit it, Rockapella!

Introducing You to HSIR - Guaranteed Results!

Are you having a case of the bracket blues?

Are you uneasy about your picks, because you don't know the difference between Marquette and Michigan?

Well, I understand your agony. I've been there every spring - staring at the screen of laptop and praying for answers.

I know how it feels to complete a bracket with no confidence.

But then I found a solution.

After a decade of being frustrated with my March Madness picks, I created a system that delivers results. It predicts the success of each tournament team by analyzing 12 statistical categories, and I guarantee it's a 12-step program that works. In fact, it's never failed...because this is the first time I've tried it. It's called HSIR, the Hancock Statistical Index Rankings, and it's like 5 Hour Energy Drink for your brackets. Trust me, you'll feel invigorated.

While calculating the rankings, I focused on only the teams that will most likely be seeded No. 1 through No. 5 in each region. Every year I've been following the tournament, the Final Four Champion has come out of this grouping of 20 elite teams. A couple worthy teams were left out, like Murray State and Creighton, but I chose the twenty teams based on the projections of several bracketologists.

Then I measured each team's proficiency in the following categories: rebounds per game, effective FG% (shooting stat that gives more value to three pointers), offensive rebound %, FTA/FGA (free throws attempted per field goal attempted), turnover %, points allowed per game, opponents' effective FG%, blocks per game, and steals per game. In every category, a team received a score ranging from 0 to 4. I got all of this information from teamrankings.com and compiled a really cool spreadsheet - one that would make Robert proud, and even more complex than his foosball game tracker. In addition to the above stats, I gave one bonus point to each team for each of these achievements: winning record against the Top 25, 80% winning percentage in the last 10 games, and 60% winning percentage on the road.

(Disclaimer: This is data gathered before conference tournaments started)

All said, I put more energy into the HSIR than I put into my day job. My workplace production was negatively impacted even before the conclusion of the Pac-12 tournament. Without further ado, here are the team rankings (out of a possible 39 points):

1. Kentucky - 32
   


2. Syracuse - 30



3. North Carolina - 27



4. Michigan State - 27



5. Kansas - 26



6. Ohio State - 24



7. Wichita State - 24



8. Marquette - 23



9. Georgetown -23



10. Louisville - 23



11. Duke - 22



12. Missouri - 21



13. Baylor - 21



14. UNLV - 21



15. Florida State - 21



16. Wisconsin - 20



17. Temple - 20



18. Indiana - 19



19. Florida - 17



20. Michigan - 11

The very top of these rankings don't tell you anything new. Kentucky and Syracuse are the two best teams in the country. However, North Carolina, Michigan State and Kansas are all capable of challenging them for the crown. Also, don't sleep on the Shockers of Wichita State - they will play for a Final Four berth. I will bet my life on it. The one thing I learned the most from these stats is that Michigan is not very good at rebounding, getting to the foul line, blocking shots, or limiting a team's shooting percentage...but somehow the Wolverines only allowed 61.5 points a game in a tough conference, and had a 6-4 record against the top 25. Out of all the 20 teams, the Wisconsin Badgers seem to be the most disciplined - they rarely turn the ball over, they limit opponents to 52 points a game and 41% FG. As always, the Big East teams (Marquette, Georgetown and Louisville) are enigmas. But, at the very least, my rankings will guide you in potential matchups with other teams.

Are you impressed with how HSIR works? For an additional $5.99 (added to your entry fee of $15), I can tell you all of the teams in the Elite Eight...and then you might have a chance at tying me in the standings in April. Try the HSIR Deluxe package today!

Cinderella Comparisons

Every year in the NCAA men's basketball tournament, sports writers and broadcasters are eager to paint the picture of a team's success as a Cinderella story. This comparison is made to mid-major teams like Butler, Davidson, and VCU, because they are traditionally the underdogs. To elaborate on this fairy tale analogy, these schools are the poor, overworked maids who are oppressed by their stepmothers and stepsisters (Duke, North Carolina, and Kentucky). They don't have a dress to wear to the prince's ball...yet, against all odds, they are magically given a dress and glass slippers, because they worked so hard and remained faithful to their dead parents' wishes...

I'm going to guess that Andy Katz, Jay Bilas, Seth Davis and 99% of basketball analysts (excluding the eloquent orator Jim Nance) have not read the Grimm Brothers' version of Cinderella (called "Aschenputtel"). Like most of America, they are familiar with Disney's cheerful revision, where morning housework = singalongs with cute musically gifted birds and humorous mice. In the Grimms' "Aschenputtel," there is no fairy godmother; only a magic tree planted on top of her mother's grave - watered with tears, of course. There are pigeons instead of songbirds, and they pluck out the eyes of the stepsisters at the end of the story. However, the most gruesome part of this fairy tale is that one stepsister removes a big toe to fit into the glass slipper, while the other one slices off her heel. The prince determines that Cinderella is the owner of the glass slipper because her foot is not bloody. This was conveniently left out of the Disney version.

In this light, you can see how ridiculous it is to compare a group of twenty year-old male athletes to a downtrodden girl who is neglected by her family....or that basketball teams are comparable to young women pining for a slow waltz with a prince.

I just think there's a better analogy out there for mid-major teams that make a run at the Final Four. I'm a bigger fan of the term "giantkiller," i.e. David and Goliath. Maybe we could pick an analogy that's actually grounded in sports. Instead of referring to them as Cinderellas, we could call them Seabiscuits or Buster Douglases. Or dare I say, Tim Tebows?

Let's stick with the Grimms' translation for now. Here are your early candidates for this year's Aschenputtels - teams that might make an impression at the royal ball:

Belmont
Location: Nashville, TN
Name: Bruins
Record: 27-7
Quality Wins: None, but lost to Duke by one point
School fact: In anticipation of Super Tuesday, presidential candidate Rick Santorum held a rally on the Belmont campus, and is currently on track to become the next Mike Huckabee.
Chances to reach Sweet 16: 8%

Creighton
Location: Omaha, NE
Name: Bluejays
Record: 28-5
Quality Wins: San Diego St., Northwestern, Wichita St., Long Beach St.(?)
School fact: In 1924, Creighton changed its team name from Hilltoppers to Bluejays. There are hills in Nebraska?
Chances to reach Sweet 16: 35%

Murray State
Location: Murray, KY
Name: Racers
Record: 30-1
Quality Wins: Memphis, St. Mary's
School fact: This school is really into racehorses. Its baseball team is called the Thoroughbreds (or 'Breds) and the football team has a tradition where a horse runs out onto the field after every touchdown.
Chances to reach Sweet 16: 40%

Oral Roberts
Location: Tulsa, OK
Name: Golden Eagles
Record: 27-5
Quality Wins: Xavier
School fact: During registration, students must sign a pledge to a university honor code. The code prohibits lying, cursing, smoking, drinking, and a range of sexual acts. The university recently relaxed its dress code to business casual, but mullets are forbidden.
Chances to reach Sweet 16: 10%

Drexel (if the NCAA selects two Colonial teams)
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Name: Dragons
Record: 27-5
Quality Wins: VCU
School fact: In 1983, the university required all incoming students to buy a Mac 128K microcomputer. In the first year, approximately 58% of class assignments were completed using MacPaint.
Chances to reach Sweet 16: 8%

VCU - Repeat Aschenputtel?
Location: Richmond, VA
Name: Rams
Record: 28-6
Quality Wins: Drexel, South Florida(?)
School fact: Virginia Commonwealth is the first research university to offer a program in homeland security and emergency preparedness. Now I know where to get my next useless Master's degree.
Chances to reach Sweet 16: 12%

Davidson (without Stephen Curry)
Location: Davidson, NC
Name: Wildcats
Record: 25-7
Quality Wins: Kansas
School fact: President Woodrow Wilson attended this college for a year, then transferred to Princeton, where he had to endure freshman hazing a second time.
Chances to reach Sweet 16: 10%

The percentages were based on exhaustive statistical research.