My Unconventional Final Four Predictions

With Saturday's semifinal games approaching, all four teams seem capable of capturing the title. All of the Final Four teams have knocked off a No. 1 seed to get to New Orleans, except for Kentucky, the remaining No. 1 in the bunch.

Louisville plays a smothering defense and has allowed 57.5 points per game in the tournament. Their offense is not exactly high-powered, but it's well-balanced, with six players averaging over 9 points per game. The Cardinals usually make up for their streaky shooting with good rebounding. When they play the Wildcats this weekend, there is an extra incentive to winning - beating their in-state rival...and it goes deeper than that: Louisville head coach Rick Pitino doesn't like Kentucky head coach John Calipari. Especially after Calipari stole recruit Marquis Teague away from Louisville, and after he called Kentucky "the only real program in the state."

Although it's going to take more than bad blood to beat Kentucky. The Wildcats have been on a roll in the tournament, winning all four games by 12 points or more, and averaging 88 points per contest (10 more points than their season average). Kentucky is loaded with freshman talent, the best one being Anthony Davis, who averages over 14 points, 10 rebounds, and 4 blocks per game. He is one of three freshman Wildcats heading to the NBA next year (projected), and two upperclassmen, Doron Lamb and Darius Miller, will also be joining them. So it's now or never for this group.

The Ohio State Buckeyes are little more experienced. They start four sophomores and a senior. One of them, forward Jared Sullinger, was considered a one-and-doner, but he decided to return for a second year, and it's the biggest reason the Buckeyes are back in the Final Four. Sullinger is part of a three-headed scoring attack, along with forward Deshaun Thomas and guard William Buford - all of them average over 14 ppg, and all of them are capable of hitting three-pointers. In addition, the Buckeyes only allow 60 points per game on defense.

Finally, let's discuss the team that always seems to destroy my bracket. I took the Kansas Jayhawks as my champion the last two years (along with President Obama), and both years, they couldn't even make the Final Four (losing to Northern Iowa in the second round in 2010 and to VCU in the Elite Eight in 2011). Understandably, I had lost all faith in the Jayhawks, and now they are two wins away from the title. Like the remaining teams in the tournament, Kansas is defense-oriented (something to take into account next March). The team allows the third-lowest FG percentage in the nation - opponents only shoot 38% against them. The Jayhawks' only major flaw appears to be three point shooting - 23.4%! Yikes.

So which team will reign supreme and manage to pull off two wins this weekend? After looking at the statistical strengths and weaknesses, I don't think any of the numbers really matter. In the last seven years, I've only guessed one champion correctly. I would have been better off making my bracket picks after consulting a six year-old, or if I was a six year-old myself. And that convinced me I need to simplify my thinking about predictions.

For instance...how often does the Final Four Champion sport the color blue on their uniforms? In the last 27 years (since the field expanded to 64 or more teams), the champion has worn blue 20 times (including powder blue). Seventy-four percent of the time - that's a pretty good indicator of success.

Second, what kind of team mascots do well in the NCAA tournament? Of the last 27 winners, over half (14) have been animals (Gators, Huskies, etc.), six have been people (Spartans, Rebels, Hoosiers, etc.), six have been mythical figures (Blue Devils, Jayhawks, etc.), and one has been a color (Orange). In 2012, animal teams are 36-35 (felines are 11-7), people names are 14-21, mythical figures are 5-4, and colors are 3-2 in the tournament...and, by the way, nature mascots (Buckeyes and Cyclones) are 5-1.

Third, how often is the Final Four Champion from a Confederate or Union state? Since 1985, 17 out of the 27 champions have come from Union States (with Duke, UNC, Florida, and Arkansas grabbing the rest of them for the Confederate states). In the tournament this year, teams from Union states are 32-24, while Confederate state teams are 17-20.

Using these new criteria (colors, Civil War loyalties, and mascots), I believe I can accurately predict the outcome of this week's games. Since all of the teams are from Union states, I can eliminate that factor. Okay, let's get down to guestimatin'.

Louisville vs. Kentucky

Color: Wildcat Blue beats Cardinal Red

Mascot: Both are animals, but felines have been particularly successful this March, so Wildcats get the nod

Winner: Kentucky

Ohio State vs. Kansas

Color: Jayhawk Blue beats Buckeye Red

Mascot: A team with a nature mascot has only won a title once since 1939 (Ohio State in 1960), so edge goes to Kansas (mythical figures have won 25% of the time since 1988)

Winner: Kansas

Kentucky vs. Kansas
Color: Push - both teams sport blue
Mascot: Since the field increased to 64, animals have been more successful than mythical figures, which favors the Wildcats

Winner: Kentucky

And there you have it. If I would have used this kind of logic when I filled out my brackets, I would be on top of the leaderboard, instead of Charles (now I've really jinxed him).

Note: I borrowed some of the 2012 research on states and mascots from Shane Ryan at grantland.com.